An attempted rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group of mercenaries that began Friday appeared to be short-lived as “Putin’s chef” suddenly announced that his men were withdrawing after briefly occupying two Russian cities and approaching the Moscow region.
Prigozhin’s whereabouts have remained a mystery, although there was some speculation that he was spotted in Belarus after allegedly making a deal with that country’s president, Alexander Lukashenko.
Prigozhin’s ongoing spat with the Russian Defense Ministry culminated in a wild 24-hour stand-off between the Wagner boss and the Russian military. Prigozhin announced a “march for justice” by his fighters against the country’s military leadership, whom he accused of deliberately firing at the paramilitary group’s positions.
Over the next few hours, Prigozhin’s men claimed to have taken over administrative centers and military headquarters in at least two major Russian cities, Rostov and Voronezh, and were less than 200 miles from Moscow when Prigozhin called off the uprising and announced his men were retreating to their “field positions.”
Telegram; Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images
The failed coup appeared to fizzle out as suddenly as it began, raising myriad questions without clear answers. Most crucially, Prigozhin’s aims and motives remain unknown, and that information vacuum was quickly filled by speculation, rumors and conspiracy theories.
With so much uncertainty and confusion over exactly what happened, Newsweek Misinformation Watch looked at some of the more prominent narratives, including one that purports an audacious “nuclear” heist.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said an attempt by Prigozhin to conduct a rebellion was a betrayal and a “stab in the back,” with a criminal investigation against the rebels initially announced on Saturday, then canceled, according to Putin’s spokesman. On Monday, several Russian media outlets reported that the investigation into Wagner’s actions is ongoing.
Predictably, such tumultuous events in a country that appeared to have a firm lock on any form of dissent or opposition, let alone mutiny, throughout Putin’s near quarter-century reign, fueled misinformation.
Shortly after Wagner announced it had crossed the border from Ukraine—where the war recently entered its 17th month—into Russia, videos on social media emerged supposedly showing Russian air forces “engaging” the rebels. These were fact-checked and shown to be CGI footage from the Arma 3 video game.
As the situation unraveled, some even speculated that Putin was set to declare martial law and mass mobilization—neither claim materialized over the weekend, although some buildings and facilities were closed across Moscow and Rostov.
With little clarity over what Prigozhin’s motives, exact plans and goals were in launching an assault on the Russian military command, theories emerged as the dust settled.
Hunter Biden Conspiracy Theory
One prominent conspiracy narrative that picked up pace among the Putin-sympathizing elements on English-language Twitter was that the coup was meant to act as a distraction to the Hunter Biden investigation.
Offering no evidence to support the theory, some accounts on Twitter and Telegram said the mutiny was orchestrated, organized or paid for by the CIA, with some citing media reports that Western intelligence agencies were aware of Prigozhin’s plans some days in advance.
While the reports cited sources claiming the agencies received such intelligence, the decision was made not to get involved in Russia’s internal affairs.
🚨Evidence found in Prigozhin’s office in St. Petersburg! The CIA likes to pay in untraceable cash. He also wanted payments in gold bars. pic.twitter.com/avNYi7NlvE
— US Civil Defense News (@CaptCoronado) June 25, 2023
One of the original posts making the baseless claim came from a prominent fake news account “US Civil Defense News,” which appeared to cite itself as the source.
No credible evidence has been presented to support the narrative alleging CIA links with Wagner, and even officials in Moscow have not made any allegations of that nature.
Did Wagner Hijack Russia’s Nukes?
In the flurry of speculation, hot takes and misleading content, an even more concerning claim emerged, suggesting Prigozhin’s goals may be more sinister than originally believed.
Multiple accounts shared messages claiming that Prigozhin’s ultimate goal was not in fact Moscow but a nuclear storage facility near Voronezh, a town in central Russia that Wagner said it briefly seized.
“The Freedom of Russia Legion says Wagner fighters yesterday briefly took control of military camp “Voronezh-45″, where tactical nuclear weapons are stored,” pro-Ukraine Twitter account ViseGrad24 wrote.
“Later, the Russian Air Force destroyed bridges in the region (Voronezh & Borisoglebsk),” it said, citing the Freedom of Russia Legion, a group of Russian exiles fighting on Ukraine’s side.
BREAKING:
The Freedom of Russia Legion says Wagner fighters yesterday briefly took control of military camp “Voronezh-45”, where tactical nuclear weapons are stored.
Later, the Russian Air Force destroyed bridges in the region (Voronezh & Borisoglebsk)
pic.twitter.com/4Svn1mwtHY— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 25, 2023
The Legion’s Twitter account claimed in its own tweet that, “according to [their] activists,” one of the PMC Wagner groups moved in the direction of Borisoglebsk “with the purpose to enter the territory of the military camp “Voronezh-45″, where the military unit 14254 (12th Main Directorate of the Russian Defense Ministry (GUMO)) is located.”
“This facility is where the Russian Defense Ministry’s tactical nuclear weapons are stored. They took control of the military unit and stayed there for some time,” the tweet said, noting that it is unknown how long they stayed on the territory of the military unit and what the outcome was.
The account also shared a video of Russian air forces striking bridges in Voronezh and Borisoglebks, arguing it offered further evidence of such a scenario.
A similar claim around the same time was made by Vladimir Osechkin, the exiled former Russian entrepreneur-turned-human rights activist. Osechkin previously reported on the internal workings of the Russian military and security apparatus in a series termed “leaked FSB letters.”
The claims were translated and reshared by another prominent Twitter user, Winds of Change founder and pro-Ukraine activist Igor Sushko, receiving more than 7 million views.
“Prigozhin capturing Voronezh-45 nuclear storage facility in Russia may be part of the key to the lock that can help explain his decision to suddenly and bizarrely ‘end’ the coup which was succeeding spectacularly,” Sushko wrote, apparently citing Osechkin.
“I’ve been trying to figure how Prigozhin can guarantee his own survival after this. This may be it. Moscow may never have been his final destination. Vornezh-45 was. Once he got the nukes, he ended the operations because all objectives were achieved.”
While Newsweek could not independently verify the claims about Wagner’s and its alleged nuclear weapons plans or capture of any of Russia’s arsenal, experts poured cold water on the narrative and even the hypothetical prospect of that type of nuclear “hijacking.”
According to scant information available about Voronezh-45 in official sources, it exists and hosts the Russian military unit 14254.
“The 12th Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation (GUMO) is a military command and control body responsible for nuclear and engineering equipment of military facilities, and for their safety,” a registry site of Russian military units states. “In 1997, the staff of the 12th GUMO included all military bases of nuclear weapons, the formation of garrisons began to protect these bases, including military unit 14254, which was located in Voronezh-45 in the early 2000s.”
However, Osechkin’s claims did not appear to reference the correct locations, as OSINT indicated by investigators at GeoLocated and Pavel Podvig, an independent military analyst based in Geneva.
“It is not even the Voronezh-45 storage facility in the image. This is what happens when Twitter sells blue check marks to all kinds of randos,” Podvig wrote, suggesting that the actual nuclear weapons storage is south of the military base.
Is this a joke?
Because the used picture is already wrong.
Can you provide any proof.
Maybe something we can geolocate?This twitter account is an expert in this matter. 👇
You are not.https://t.co/gqE9F9Cta6— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) June 25, 2023
Podvig went on to list a number of factors that would impede any such attempt to “steal” nuclear weapons by a group of mercenaries.
“Can an armed group like Wagner take control of some of Russia’s nuclear weapons and somehow use or detonate them? The short answer is no, it’s virtually impossible.
“Let me just note that the Voronezh-45 site (aka Object 387 or Borisoglebsk) may well be empty. Its only “daughter” unit is the air force training center at Yeisk… On the other hand, it may store some other weapons. Iskanders? Hard to tell. In any event, taking physical control over weapons might be possible as 12 GUMO does not have heavy armament to protect the site, but not much more.”
He further pointed out that any use or detonation of these weapons would require “PAL unlock codes (which I assume are released by the central command) and active cooperation of the 12 GUMO personnel,” arguing that neither would be available to Prigozhin’s men.
Others were skeptical too. Hans Kristensen, director at the Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists, wrote that “there is no evidence whatsoever – and this blue-mark @Twitter account doesn’t provide any – that the Wagner group “captured” a Russian nuke storage site and “got the nukes.”
“Maybe, but even achieving real physical control of the warheads is quite difficult (procedure before unblocking),” Matej Rafael Risko, a research fellow with a focus on nuclear deterrence at the Institute of International Studies (IMS) Charles University in Prague, wrote in a thread that described the physical and logistical challenges associated with such an operation.
Maybe, but even achieving real physical control of the warheads is quite difficult (procedure before unblocking).
Just a few additional points:)Without the 12th GUMO specialist, they surely wouldn’t be able to complete the warhead. To speak about Iskanders (9N70 warhead)-below https://t.co/jRLGsYuLwv
— Matej Rafael Risko (@MatejRisko) June 25, 2023
“Without the 12th GUMO specialist, they surely wouldn’t be able to complete the warhead. To speak about Iskanders (9N70 warhead)-below.
“OTR warheads are stored in an incomplete assembly, the so-called readiness stage (sometimes referred to as (SG) “4”). This means that the neutron tubes are not installed, the MED electric detonators are not connected, and the electrical system is not connected to power sources,” Risko explained.
While Western nations, including the U.S., reportedly tried to reach the Kremlin for assurances that Russia’s nuclear arsenal remained secure amid the apparent coup, State Department sources later told reporters that the “U.S. has not seen a change in Russia’s nuclear posture.”
“We have not seen any changes in the disposition of Russian nuclear forces,” a State Department spokesperson told CNN on Saturday. “No reason to adjust our conventional or nuclear force posture. We have long-standing, established communication channels with Russia on nuclear issues.”
It is impossible to determine the real drivers behind Prigozhin’s failed mutiny, or whether or not he at any point entertained plans of getting his hands on weapons of mass destruction. The Wagner boss previously made allegations of possible “nuclear provocations” by the Russian defense ministry, speculating that it could “carry out a tactical nuclear strike” on one of its own cities.
However, there is little substance or hard evidence behind the narrative purporting that Wagner gained, or attempted to gain, access to nuclear material. Further, experts who commented on the issue argued that even hypothetically, such a feat would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to accomplish.
Newsweek reached out to Wagner’s Concorde Group account, the U.S. State Department, Russia’s Ministry of Defense and the International Atomic Energy Agency via email for comment.
