We Should Be Paying More Attention to Luis Arraez’s Pursuit of .400

The Marlins play game No. 81 on Wednesday at Fenway Park—halfway through their season—and Luis Arraez still is making a realistic bid to hit .400. On the difficulty scale in today’s game, it is harder than hitting 61 home runs. It’s just not as highlight-friendly to see the Marlins second baseman carving out his hits with an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph as it was to see Aaron Judge smashing home runs at an average speed of 109.0 mph last year.

Let’s give this master craftsman his due. Here are the top 10 reasons to appreciate the wonder that is Arraez.

1. He has a very cool nickname: La Regadera.

Literally, it’s “The Watering Can,” or “The Sprinkler,” in this context for spraying hits all over the field. Venezuela Winter League fans gave him the nickname in 2017, when he was 19 years old and spraying 61 hits in 45 games for Magallanes. (None of his hits were home runs.) Two years later, Arraez chose La Regadera as the nickname on the back of his Twins’ Players Weekend jersey.

2. Hitting .400 is harder than hitting 61 home runs.

Nobody has hit .400 since Ted Williams in 1941.

In those same 82 years, 61 home runs have been achieved eight times by five players (Roger Maris, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds and Judge).

3. Forget .400. Hitting even .380 would be amazing.

Nobody has come within 20 points of .400 in a full season since 1980, when George Brett hit .390.

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4. Arraez’s pursuit of .400 is the most unlikely run we’ve seen in the 82 years since Williams did it.

Why? Pitching is too good. The major league batting average this season is .248, the fifth lowest since the mound was lowered in 1969. The only worse hitting environments: ’72, 2020, ’21 and ’22.

There have been five seasons since 1941 in which a batter hit .380 or better, including the strike-shortened ’94 season. In relation to the league batting average (let’s call it adjusted average, or avg.+), Arraez hitting .399 is more of an outlier than any of the rest of them:

5. Pitchers don’t throw him strikes, and still he sprays hits.

Chasing pitches out of the zone is very bad for a hitter. You know that. But how bad? The average MLB hitter bats .151 on pitches out of the strike zone.

Arraez hits .367 on pitches out of the zone.

That is flat-out ridiculous. Here’s what it means: Arraez, when he chases pitches out of the zone, is better than every hitter in baseball on pitches in the zone except Nick Castellanos and Anthony Santander.

It means this, too: Arraez is a better hitter on pitches out of the zone than every qualified hitter overall in the past 20 seasons.

And this month of chase hitting is particularly ridiculous for Arraez:

Arraez in June by Pitch Location

6. Arraez has swung at 127 two-strike pitches in the strike zone and missed only two of them (with no foul tip).

Congratulations, Carlos Estévez (98.7-mph fastball) and Hogan Harris (93.6-mph fastball). You are the only two pitchers all season to strike out Arraez by getting him to completely miss a pitch in the strike zone.

7. Arraez has been hitting his whole life.

Maybe not quite like this, but he is about as reliable as it gets.

Arraez Career Hitting

8. Arraez is hitting .430 at home.

That would be the seventh-highest home batting average (min. 70 games) and the best since Chuck Klein tore it up in the Baker Bowl for the 1933 Phillies. The last player to hit .400 at home was Bonds in 2004.

9. Arraez’s hits have value.

He is coming up big for a team that holds the first wild-card spot. Brett (1980) is the only player since Joe DiMaggio in ’39 to hit better than .370 for a playoff team.

Arraez is hitting .441 with runners in scoring position.

Only seven players since 1956 have been that good in the clutch: Freddie Freeman (2013), Allen Craig (’13), Ichiro Suzuki (’01), Gwynn (1997), Paul Molitor (’87), Brett (’80) and Mickey Mantle (’56).

10. La Regadera is showering the field with hits.

You’ve got to love the beauty of this pattern:

Arraez Hit Spray Chart

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