The Baltimore Orioles are just two-and-a-half games back of the New York Yankees in the AL East, and they’ve won eight of their last 10 games heading into Tuesday’s matchup with the last-place Toronto Blue Jays.
The Jays are three games under .500 this season, struggling a bit on offense (19th in OPS and 25th in runs scored) through 59 games.
Things won’t get much easier against Baltimore ace Corbin Burnes (2.35 ERA) on Tuesday night, but should bettors lay the juice with the O’s as road favorites?
Here’s a look at the starting pitchers, odds and my best bet for this AL showdown:
Run Line
Moneyline
Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Baltimore Orioles
Gunnar Henderson: Henderson comes into this matchup on a six-game hitting streak, moving his average to .267 on the season. The reigning AL Rookie of the Year has 19 homers on the season and is one of the best young players in all of baseball. Can he stay hot on Tuesday?
Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Even though the Blue Jays haven’t played well, Vlad Jr. has still been solid, hitting .295 on the season. He only has six home runs, but the slugger is getting on base at a high rate (.389 OBP). He’s 2-for-6 against Burnes in his career.
Baltimore has won eight of the 12 starts that Burnes has made this season, including three in a row, and I expect that to continue on the road on Tuesday.
Burnes has allowed three or fewer runs in every start this season – incredibly consistent – and he held the Jays to just one run in six innings earlier this season. Shockingly, Toronto won that game 3-2, but I don’t expect that to be the result tonight.
The Jays are starting Trevor Richards, who will likely be used as an opener in this game, which means they’ll be asking a lot from their bullpen that is now down closer Jordan Romano.
Toronto has a 4.54 bullpen ERA in 2024, good for 27th in Major League Baseball. That should make things easier on the O’s offense, and Baltimore’s bullpen (3.61 ERA) also has the advantage once Burnes exits the game.
The Jays are better than a last-place team, but I can’t back them here with the O’s ace on the mound.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-185)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
