Monday’s Major League Baseball slate is small with a handful of teams traveling, but that’s not stopping us from keying in on a handful of prominent sluggers to go deep.
Yordan Alvarez remains one of the most feared hitters in baseball’s most feared hitters in baseball, and he is in a great spot to go yard at Minute Maid Park on Monday as the Astros look to jumpstart a hot summer with a series opener against the Cardinals.
Don’t sleep on AL MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson either, who is raking this season and will face a struggling Kevin Gausman before seeing a below-average Blue Jays bullpen.
Lastly, I’ll be focused on the hitter-friendly Coors Field for the Rockies-Reds matchup, looking to cash in on favorable hitting conditions.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Gunnar Henderson
Henderson is at the top of most hitting metrics, including 19 home runs and a slugging percentage flirting with .600 (.591). He is in the 98th percentile in terms of hard-hit percentage, per MLB Statcast, and crushes the ball with an average exit velocity of 94 miles per hour (also 98th percentile).
So, we know that he can rake, but the matchup also sets up nicely for the shortstop, facing a struggling Gausman who is allowing an xSLG of .451 and opponents to find the barrel on nearly 9% of pitches, 30th percentile.
Gausman is due some regression, he has an xERA of 4.72 which is far higher than his 4.14, and he has a 6.20 ERA at home this season.
This is the perfect storm for a Henderson home run.
Yordan Alvarez
Alvarez only has 11 home runs this season, but his metrics pin him as one of the best power hitters in the bigs this season, posting an xSLG of .554 this season which pits him in the 95th percentile.
The matchup is appetizing on Monday against Cardinals’ starter Kyle Gibson, who has an xERA of 5.24 which is far higher than his actual ERA of 3.60. He doesn’t strikeout many batters, less than 20% this season, and has allowed a ton of hard contact, he ranks in the 25th percentile in that metric.
Few hit it harder than Alvarez, and I believe he is in line for more home runs as the season goes on and it starts on Monday.
Ryan McMahon
McMahon has been arguably the Rockies best hitter this season, posting .284/.371/.470 slashes with 10 home runs to his name.
The third baseman particularly thrives against lefty pitching, hitting .338 with four home runs in just 68 at-bats on the year. He will face southpaw Andrew Abbott on Monday night, making this a must-bet given the hitter-friendly conditions at Coors Field.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
