Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the NFL, in order of projected 2024 win totals. Up next: the Broncos.
The Denver Broncos could have an uphill battle in their first season trying to recover from the infamous trade and extension of Russell Wilson in 2022.
Wilson was released in March, but the consequences of his two-year stint in Denver are visible on the Broncos’ roster, which might be the NFL’s worst heading into the 2024 season. It was even uglier when Jarrett Stidham was the lone quarterback on the depth chart, and it was hard to get excited about the acquisition of Zach Wilson from the Jets.
But the Broncos at least formed a decent three-way quarterback competition, using their first-round pick on Bo Nix, the former standout at Oregon and Auburn. Payton said Nix has impressed in OTAs, which might quiet the doubters for a bit. Many viewed Nix as a reach at 12—five quarterbacks were selected before him.
Whoever wins the quarterback competition may find it hard to succeed with so many unproven players on offense. The Broncos’ defense has similar issues outside of cornerback Patrick Surtain II.
Not many are taking the Broncos seriously, but perhaps Payton can turn his team in the right direction in 2024.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Drafting Nix in first round
With Russell Wilson gone, Payton can now build the roster as he sees fit with Nix running the show if he wins the QB1 job from Stidham and Zach Wilson in training camp.
Reaching for a quarterback rarely works out—the Broncos know that well from the post–Peyton Manning years—but perhaps this gamble will pay off early because Nix is regarded as pro ready after 61 collegiate starts. And being prepared for the NFL game doesn’t necessarily mean Nix has high upside. The Broncos will find out soon whether they drafted a franchise quarterback or someone better suited for a backup role.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 9 to 13
The Broncos will have to play back-to-back road games against the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs—the two teams that made the AFC championship game last season—before returning home to face Kirk Cousins and the new-look Atlanta Falcons in Week 11. Then, they go back on the road for an AFC West matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders before concluding the brutal stretch by hosting the Cleveland Browns, who had one of the best defenses in the league in 2023. Even if the Broncos impress during the first two months of the season, they might not stay afloat during this difficult five-game stretch.
Breakout player to watch: WR Marvin Mims Jr.
The Broncos haven’t had many young impact players the past few seasons, which wasn’t helped by the fact that they were low on draft picks because of the trade for Wilson. Mims and linebacker Drew Sanders were the first two players selected in the Payton era last year, but both had quiet rookie seasons and Sanders might miss all of 2024 after tearing his Achilles in OTAs last month. Now it’s on Mims, the second-round pick, to give the Broncos at least one impact player this season from the ’23 draft class.
Mims should get more opportunities with the departure of Jerry Jeudy. But he will still have to compete for snaps against Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds and rookie Troy Franklin. Mims, however, has the advantage of being a big-play threat, evident from his accolade as a second-team All-Pro kick returner. Last season, he had 22 catches for 377 yards and one touchdown along with a 99-yard kickoff return for a score.
Best-case scenario: Broncos develop cornerstone players
The Broncos need a core group to build the foundation for a winning team. As of now, they might have only one cornerstone piece in Surtain. There could be a case for Sutton, but he might be on the trading block if he and the team don’t agree on a new contract. Perhaps the team views right tackle Mike McGlinchey and defensive lineman Zach Allen as core players after paying them handsomely in free agency last year, but they’re going to need to be better in 2024 to play up to their contracts. If the Broncos get a combination of veterans, rookies and second-year players to contribute, they might be a surprising team this season. But that likely won’t happen without Nix delivering a memorable rookie season, which will be difficult without more cornerstone pieces on the roster.
Worst-case scenario: Nix pick backfires
The Broncos desperately need Nix to show flashes of being a franchise quarterback because the team passed on many talented players with the No. 12 pick, including tight end Brock Bowers, defensive tackle Byron Murphy II and edge rusher Laiatu Latu, all players who could have filled roster holes. If it goes sideways for Nix, the Broncos might find themselves with a top-three draft pick in 2025 that could be used on another quarterback. It happened to the Arizona Cardinals in ’19, when Josh Rosen flopped, leading to Arizona’s drafting of Kyler Murray.
And quarterbacks drafted outside of the top 10 don’t get that many opportunities to prove themselves. Even Zach Wilson, the ’21 No. 2 pick, only got two seasons with the New York Jets before they added Aaron Rodgers. Teams move on quickly in the modern NFL, and if the Broncos don’t get an opportunity to move on from Nix if he bombs this year while the defense keeps Denver near the .500 mark, it could set them back for years. Perhaps the worst-case scenario is a miserable rookie season for Nix and the team landing outside the top five picks of the draft, preventing them from finding a suitable replacement.
Head coach-quarterback tandem ranking
No. 18: Payton (8) and Nix (32)
The Broncos ended up reasonably high on our list because of Payton’s accomplishments, but this might be his toughest assignment. Denver is in a complete rebuild thanks to the Wilson release, leaving it with $85 million of dead money over the next two years. Enter Nix, who will start on a talentless roster. —Matt Verderame
Sleeper fantasy pick: Nix
Did the Broncos reach for Nix in the draft? Yes. But he ended up in a nice spot. Nix will learn from an offensive-minded head coach who seems enamored with the Heisman Trophy runner-up, and has an obvious path to the starting job, assuming he can beat out Stidham and Wilson. Nix also rushed for 20 scores in his last two collegiate seasons, and we all know how much that can improve the value of a rookie quarterback. —Michael Fabiano
Best bet: Bo Nix over 17.5 passing TDs
I am not enamored with Nix, but I believe Payton is and will be stubborn even if he gets off to a slow start, and 17.5 TDs is a pretty low bar. Wilson tossed 26 in 15 games last season, and if Nix starts the majority of the season, 18 TDs seems within reach—especially at its current plus-money payout. —Jennifer Piacenti
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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