This year’s Tony Award nominees for Best Musical have never been so unpredictable

“No use permitting some prophet of doom to wipe each and every smile absent!” sings Sally Bowles in the musical “Cabaret.” 

Nicely, I’m not right here to erase each and every grin in Occasions Square, but I assurance that a lot of folks on Broadway will not be beaming occur Tuesday morning. 

That’s when the 2024 Tony Award nominations will be declared, and this calendar year that record carries nearly as a lot excess weight as the coveted prizes by themselves. 

“Pity the displays that really don’t make the slice for Greatest Musical,” stated a wag. “This calendar year in particular. It will be tough to get by way of the summertime without the need of a nomination.”

Through the 2023-24 time, a whopping 15 new musicals opened — the widest field of the earlier 30 years at the very least. The competitors, for audiences and awards, is as ferocious as the Sharks and Jets.

Or, to reference one contender, “The Outsiders,” as vicious as the Greasers and the Socs.

Ten of those 15 suitable productions are continue to working, but there will be only five Ideal Musical nominees known as out (six if there’s a tie). So, a lot more than fifty percent of what’s on could get the brush.

A Tony nod is a large offer for reasons over and above the prestige. 

The lucky nominees get to execute on the CBS telecast for 4 million opportunity ticket-buyers, quite a few of whom are listening to about these exhibits for the initial time. And they’ll be capable to do further rounds of nationwide press appearances suitable as summer holidaymakers strike NYC.

Having said that, that enhanced publicity will be harder to realize in what is the most unpredictable calendar year on Broadway in current memory. 

Nobody in town is thoroughly self-confident about what will be nominated, let alone what will win.

Aspect of the confusion is that nothing at all new has emerged as a important box-business hit, a la “Hamilton,” “The Book of Mormon” or “Dear Evan Hansen.” 

Some reveals (“The Outsiders,” “Hell’s Kitchen,” “The Excellent Gatsby”) are chugging alongside, hoping for a Tonys increase. Some others (“Lempicka,” “The Heart of Rock and Roll”) are on fumes, praying they’ll hail the Funds Taxi.

With out grosses as their information, the industry has looked to reviews for clarity.

The final two months, when nine of people musicals opened, were being like presidential primaries.

Theater folk pored around critics’ appraisals on opening night time attempting to make sense of the March and April insanity. I’ve under no circumstances obtained so many baffled texts at 9:01 p.m.

But my cohorts and I, even though liking (and loathing) a whole lot, couldn’t agree on what the present is.

So the culling arrives down to the 44-particular person Tony nominating committee — and then the tastes of the 800-or-so Tony voters, such as the “road voters,” a 100-sturdy group that lives exterior of New York.

“The street will want ‘Hell’s Kitchen area,’ ” a source stated of the Alicia Keys musical at the Shubert. “Probably the only a single. ‘Hell’s Kitchen’ or ‘Water for Elephants.’” 

Yet another voter expressed individual fondness for “The Outsiders,” the touching clearly show at the Jacobs primarily based on S.E. Hinton’s teen novel.

Every person admires “Illinoise,” a attractive dance piece established to the songs of Sufjan Stevens that opened Thursday at the St. James, but there are also whispered doubts of regardless of whether or not it’s a musical.

Who else has a shot? “Suffs” and “Below Lies Appreciate,” perhaps. But I guess the nominations toss a curveball.

Even though Finest Musical is entirely up for grabs, it is a cinch to predict the winners of the other large a few categories — even just before the noms are uttered.

“Stereophonic” normally takes Best Enjoy, “Appropriate” wins Most effective Revival of a Engage in, and “Merrily We Roll Along” has Most effective Revival of a Musical wrapped up.

Can the dear revival of “Cabaret” starring Eddie Redmayne give “Merrily” a race? No dice, previous chum.