Our Way Too Early Emmy Predictions

It’s an interesting year for the TV Academy — yes, we just had the 2023 Emmys ceremony in January due to the strikes, and now we’re gearing up for the 2024 awards in September. Are we prepared? Do we have a choice? The good news is we’re still nearly two months away from the real 2024 Primetime Emmy nominations (that’s Wednesday, July 17; mark your calendars), which means it’s the perfect time to take a stab at our first set of predictions. In the past few weeks, we’ve talked about some of the elements that could shape this awards season: The Bear positioned to dominate the comedy categories; Shōgun moving from limited series to drama after announcing plans to make more seasons; the recent (unwelcome) tendency of Emmy voters to nominate huge blocks of cast members in the same category rather than spread the wealth. All of these elements factored into our predictions. It’s a long read but necessary to get a sense of the landscape. Sit down with a cool Memorial Day–weekend drink and dig in.

The void left by Succession seemed to clear a wide path for The Crown to gobble up everything in its farewell season, but with the popular and acclaimed Shōgun now officially a drama, there’s a real battle at the top of this category. That leaves six slots left for a ton of shows that, with very few exceptions, have yet to prove themselves as Emmy favorites.

Apple TV+ is looking to secure multiple Drama Series nominees for the first time ever with Slow Horses in a strong position behind a great Gary Oldman performance and The Morning Show marking the only drama besides The Crown with any pre-existing Emmy pedigree. Even the most complimentary assessments of TMS say it’s unhinged, but in a year this wide open, watchability is at a premium, and guilty pleasures like it and HBO’s The Gilded Age (which was all but ignored by the Emmys in its first season) are expected to attract votes.

Plenty of freshmen series are looking to break into this category. The most critically acclaimed is Showtime’s The Curse, whose acting, themes, and design elements all scream award-worthiness, so long as voters aren’t turned off by co-creator Nathan Fielder’s intentionally alienating ethos (and that ending!). Meanwhile, Amazon’s Fallout and Mr. and Mrs. Smith are getting a lot of buzz and would be only the second and third Amazon dramas to ever get nominated in this category after The Boys. On the outskirts sit a surprising number of shows that deal with aliens (Netflix’s 3 Body Problem, Disney+’s Loki, Paramount’s Star Trek: Strange New Worlds; Apple’s Sugar), at least one on the brink of cancellation (Tokyo Vice), and that rarest of all things, a network drama (Elsbeth).

Front-runners
Shōgun
The Crown

It’s Time
Slow Horses

Unhinged (Complimentary)
The Gilded Age
The Morning Show

Cool Freshmen
The Curse
Mr. and Mrs. Smith
Fallout

Less Cool Freshmen
3 Body Problem
Sugar

Eager Sophomores
Loki
Tokyo Vice

Hear Us Out …
X-Men ‘97

Who Knows?
Star Trek: Strange New Worlds
The New Look
Hijack
Lupin 
Elsbeth
Ahsoka
For All Mankind

Predicted Nominees: Shōgun, The Crown, The Morning Show, Slow Horses, The Curse, The Gilded Age, Fallout, X-Men ’97

Once again, Shōgun’s category hopping has changed the outlook here, putting two very likely nominees on the board in Hiroyuki Sanada and Cosmo Jarvis. That leaves only four open slots, one of which will almost certainly go to Oscar winner Gary Oldman. Unless Emmy voters have suddenly grown weary of The Crown in its final season, expect Dominic West to get votes. And, weird alien twist or not, Colin Farrell’s star power should pull a good number of votes his way.

Suddenly, we’re looking at one open slot and a ton of contenders. Will the Academy be hip enough to acknowledge artists like Nathan Fielder (The Curse) and Donald Glover (Mr. and Mrs. Smith), both of whom seem content to challenge voters with their work? (Glover does have a Comedy Actor statue for Atlanta, don’t forget.) Will they be able to resist the gravitational pull of The Gilded Age’s dashing robber baron Morgan Spector? Will they pick Tom Hiddleston’s legitimately great performance in the wayward second season of Loki out of the rubble of the MCU?

Or will Emmy voters bypass them all and rely on an old favorite? Ben Mendelsohn, who plays Christian Dior in Apple’s biographical fashion drama The New Look, won an Emmy for Bloodline in 2016. Idris Elba, in contention for the Apple thriller Hijack, is a five-time Emmy nominee (four for Luther). Timothy Olyphant is a three-time Emmy nominee; one of those nominations was for Justified, a show whose revival, Justified: City Primeval, is in contention this year. Neither The New Look, Hijack, or, sorry, City Primeval made much of a dent in the TV landscape, but voters like the people they like.

Front-runners
Hiroyuki Sanada, Shōgun
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses

Likely Nominees for Disparate Reasons
Cosmo Jarvis, Shōgun
Colin Farrell, Sugar
Dominic West, The Crown

Aloof But Accomplished
Nathan Fielder, The Curse
Donald Glover, Mr. and Mrs. Smith

The Tide Is Rising
Morgan Spector, The Gilded Age

Emmy Faves
Ben Mendelsohn, The New Look
Idris Elba, Hijack
Timothy Olyphant: Justified: City Primeval

Because He’s Holding the MCU Together with Both Hands
Tom Hiddleston, Loki

Long Shots
Omar Sy, Lupin
Jamie Dornan, The Tourist

Predicted Nominees: Gary Oldman, Hiroyuki Sanada, Cosmo Jarvis, Dominic West, Colin Farrell, Ben Mendelsohn

The Emmys are very much not the Oscars, but sometimes they end up in similar moods. Mere months after winning her second Best Actress Oscar, Emma Stone finds herself on the verge of possibly winning her first Emmy for her terrifyingly funny and damning portrayal of white-feminist techno-capitalism masquerading as altruism in The Curse. While the show as a whole and some of its other performances might be too arch for the average award voter, Stone’s star power should be more than enough to keep her at the head of the pack.

Shōgun’s turn to Drama could majorly change the dynamics in this category if the acclaimed Anna Sawai proves to be as popular with voters here as she was expected to be in Limited. Sawai delivered perhaps the most impactful turn of the season as Lady Mariko, with her performance in the penultimate episode primed to get voters beelining to their ballots.

As always, we underestimate the Emmys’ love for The Crown at our own peril, and no one who’s played Elizabeth II on that show has failed to win an Emmy. Imelda Staunton is firmly in the mix here, as is Jennifer Aniston, who was already nominated for The Morning Show’s first season in 2020. Her castmate Reese Witherspoon got the nomination in 2022, and there’s certainly enough room on the ballot for both to get a nod this year (though TMS still feels like Aniston’s show first). Meanwhile, Juliette Binoche is, like Stone and Witherspoon, an Oscar winner, and she’s looking to pull down her first Emmy nomination for playing Coco Chanel in The New Look.

In the realm of dark horses, there are folks like Maya Erskine for Mr. and Mrs. Smith, a show I could see getting nominated in all the major categories or none of them. Prime Video’s binge-releasing all eight episodes of that show on the same day really turned it into a one-weekend wonder. Carrie Preston for Elsbeth seems like she’d be right up the Emmys’ alley (Kathy Bates got back-to-back nominations for Harry’s Law in 2011 and 2012 — the Emmys used to love procedural quirk), plus Preston won an Emmy for playing this same character on The Good Wife in 2013. But after entirely ignoring both The Good Fight and Evil, I no longer trust Emmy voters to pick up what Robert and Michelle King are putting down. And speaking of people who have been constantly overlooked by the Emmys, Carrie Coon is once again in line for a nomination for The Gilded Age. She was snubbed last year, and for three seasons on The Leftovers, so while it seems she’s in a good position, a pair of crossed fingers for Mrs. Bertha Russell wouldn’t be out of order.

The Front-runner
Emma Stone, The Curse

A New Contender
Anna Sawai, Shōgun

Likely Nominees
Imelda Staunton, The Crown
Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show

The Tide Is Rising
Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age

Oscar Winners Who Are Better Than This
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show
Juliette Binoche, The New Look

If Voting Trends Change
Carrie Preston, Elsbeth
Maya Erskine, Mr. and Mrs. Smith

If Voters Play It Safe
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU
Danai Gurira: The Walking Dead: The Ones Who Live

Long Shots
Rosario Dawson, Ahsoka
Ella Purnell, Fallout
Shanola Hampton, Found
Rebecca Ferguson, Silo

Predicted Nominees: Emma Stone, Anna Sawai, Imelda Staunton, Jennifer Aniston, Carrie Coon, Juliette Binoche

Even when The Morning Show is bad, Billy Crudup’s performance as Cory Ellison is so, so good. He won this award back in 2020 and would be the prime beneficiary of the Succession exodus except for a competitor from within his own tent: Jon Hamm. The 12-time acting nominee (he won for Mad Men in 2015) crashed the Morning Show party in season three as a tech billionaire vying to buy UBA, and now it looks like Hamm and Crudup will take their onscreen battles to the Emmys.

Once you get past those two names, though, it is truly the Wild West out there. The actors who grab those remaining six nominations will likely be determined by which series benefit from the Emmy voters’ trend of voting for every single cast member of a show they like. That show could still be The Crown and snag nominations for Jonathan Pryce as Prince Phillip (he’d be the third of three actors nominated for the role, after Matt Smith and Tobias Menzies), Khalid Abdalla as Dodi Fayed, and Salim Daw as Mohamed Al-Fayed. Shōgun could walk away with multiple nominees in this category as well for the fan-fave Tadanobu Asano as the scheming Yabushige and/or Takehiro Hira as big bad Kazunari.

If voters lean even more heavily toward The Morning Show, we could see Mark Duplass repeat his 2020 nomination. Meanwhile, Nathan Lane is an eight-time nominee in the Guest Actor category (winning in 2022 for Only Murders in the Building), but he’s never been up for an award on the main show. A wave of support for The Gilded Age could finally sweep him in, Foghorn Leghorn accent be damned.

With all the Oscar winners in contention in the other drama categories, expect a push for Loki’s Ke Huy Quan, even though his character felt more like a guest star than a supporting player. If voters feel like being swayed by nothing more complicated than good performances, they could always throw their support behind the likes of Jack Lowden, who keeps getting beat up on Slow Horses (to tremendous effect), or Benny Safdie, who harnessed his grimy filmmaking vibe to play a reality-TV producer on The Curse.

In-House Competitors
Jon Hamm, The Morning Show
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show

Could Win If Voters Still Love The Crown
Jonathan Pryce, The Crown

How Deep Is the Sweep?
Khalid Abdalla, The Crown
Salim Daw, The Crown
Tadanobu Asano, Shōgun
Takehiro Hira, Shōgun
Mark Duplass, The Morning Show
Nathan Lane, The Gilded Age

Deserving, for Whatever That’s Worth
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
Benny Safdie, The Curse

Prestige Carryover
Ke Huy Quan, Loki

Long Shots
Liam Cunningham, 3 Body Problem
James Cromwell, Sugar
Joel Kinnaman, For All Mankind
Lee Pace, Foundation

Predicted Nominees: Jon Hamm, Billy Crudup, Jonathan Pryce, Tadanobu Asano, Nathan Lane, Khalid Abdalla, Jack Lowden, Benny Safdie

Even last year, when Emmy voters abandoned The Crown almost entirely in order to load up on Succession nominations, Elizabeth Debicki still got recognized for her performance as Princess Diana. After wins at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and Critics Choice, she remains my most confident prediction for The Crown to pick up a win. She will likely be joined by castmate Lesley Manville, looking to be the third actress to be nominated for playing Princess Margaret (after Vanessa Kirby and Helena Bonham-Carter).

Once again, all eyes are on which shows might dominate the category with three or more nominees. The Crown could easily do this with a nod for Olivia Williams as Camilla Parker Bowles (Emerald Fennell was nominated for the same role in 2021). Shōgun also has contenders in Fumi Nikaido, who played the formidable Lady Ochiba, and Moeka Hoshi as the young Usami Fuji.

Both The Morning Show and The Gilded Age are overflowing with contenders who could take up multiple Supporting Actress slots. Greta Lee seems the most likely, especially given the profile boost she got during Past Lives’s Oscar-season run. But Holland Taylor is an Emmy favorite (eight nominations, one win), and Nicole Beharie had a scene go viral simply for how good she was in it, so any of them (or Karen Pittman, honestly) could show up. The Gilded Age is loaded with awards magnet actors, including Christine Baranski (15 nominations, one win), Cynthia Nixon (five nominations, two wins), and Audra McDonald (five nominations, one win, plus six Tony Awards).

Even Slow Horses could get in on the bulk-nominations game if a more-expected nominee like Kristin Scott Thomas, who plays a ruthless MI5 boss, is joined by Saskia Reeves, whose Catherine Standish spent the show’s third season becoming ever more disillusioned by her proximity to the security state.

In-House Competitors
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Lesley Manville, The Crown

How Deep Is the Sweep?
Moeka Hoshi, Shōgun
Fumi Nikaido, Shōgun
Olivia Williams, The Crown
Christina Baranski, The Gilded Age
Cynthia Nixon, The Gilded Age
Audra McDonald, The Gilded Age
Greta Lee, The Morning Show
Holland Taylor, The Morning Show
Nicole Beharie, The Morning Show
Karen Pittman, The Morning Show

Deserving, for Whatever That’s Worth
Kristin Scott Thomas, Slow Horses
Saskia Reeves, Slow Horses

Long Shots
Amy Ryan, Sugar
Rosalind Chao, 3 Body Problem
Adelaide Clemens, Justified: City Primeval
Harriet Walter, Silo
Emily Mortimer, The New Look

Predicted Nominees: Elizabeth Debicki, Lesley Manville, Fumi Nikaido, Greta Lee, Nicole Beharie, Kristin Scott Thomas, Moeka Hoshi, Christine Baranski

Unlike in the Drama categories, Comedy has far more returning series. On one level, that makes them easier to assess; we know a lot more about how Emmy voters feel about these shows. But it also means there are more factors to consider when it comes to predicting those last few nomination slots in each category. The one easy thing: We know what’s winning Outstanding Comedy Series, and that’s The Bear, which in its second season was just as adept at deploying tension (that “Fishes” flashback episode) but also managed to take a few breaths for moments of grace and reflection. No, it’s not a comedy, but it’ll be the best show nominated.

Of last year’s Comedy Series nominees, Abbott Elementary and Only Murders in the Building are the only ones that aired new episodes, and they’re certain to be back in the mix. They’ll be joined by Hacks, a 2021 and 2022 nominee that hasn’t seemed to lose any critical support in its third season. The other sure-thing nominee is HBO’s Curb Your Enthusiasm, which has been a Comedy Series nominee every time it’s returned to the schedule since 2002. With its final season airing this spring, it’s unfathomable voters would hop off the train now.

That leaves three open slots. If this were the aughts, one would definitely go to Frasier, an eight-time nominee in this category, but the Paramount+ reboot of the classic sitcom just didn’t have the same cultural impact. Sex and the City was another staple of the Emmys in the aughts, but And Just Like That … was unable to recapture that magic with its first season. Emmy voters are tough to persuade once they’ve rejected a show, but AJLT has been such a roller-coaster ride I wouldn’t rule out a nostalgia nod somewhere. What We Do in the Shadows was a nominee for its second and third seasons, then passed over for its fourth. Whether it can get back in the inner circle will probably be an open question until nomination morning.

When it comes to new shows, the streamers are all elbowing for space. Apple is pushing hard for its Desperate Housewives–in–Swinging ’70s Florida series Palm Royale; Netflix has its muscle behind its Guy Ritchie adaptation The Gentlemen; Amazon is pushing Prime Video’s surrealist I’m a Virgo and the The Boys spinoff Gen V. Both Apple and Amazon are in uncharted territory in trying to get multiple shows nominated, which makes me want to give Netflix the edge here.

Don’t expect Netflix to do what Peacock couldn’t and snag Girls5Eva the recognition it deserves. But when it comes to finally getting a show nominated before it’s too late, can we collectively place our psychic energy into landing Hulu’s Reservation Dogs a nomination, if for no other reason than that it overwhelmingly deserves it?

Finally, it’s been a decade since CBS has been nominated in this category, and it’s got two fringe contenders in Ghosts and So Help Me Todd. The latter has already been canceled, which makes a nomination exceedingly unlikely. Ghosts is still quite popular, but buzz-wise, it feels like last year’s nominations were its moment to leap into the fray. That said, Emmy voters are often a year late in responding to trends, so maybe Ghosts has one more shot.

Your Winner
The Bear

All But Locked In
Abbott Elementary
Hacks
Only Murders in the Building

Quite Literally Never Misses
Curb Your Enthusiasm

Never Used to Miss
Frasier
And Just Like That

Still Got the Juice?
What We Do in the Shadows

Last* Chance
Girls5Eva* (prove us wrong, Netflix!)
Young Sheldon
The Afterparty

Just Gonna Keep Saying It
Reservation Dogs

Streamer Newbies
Palm Royale
The Gentlemen
I’m a Virgo
Gen V

Network Hopefuls
Ghosts
So Help Me Todd

It Came From Britain
Dreaming Whilst Black
We Are Lady Parts

Deserve It, for Whatever That’s Worth
Julia
Platonic

Have Voters Come Around?
The Righteous Gemstones
Loot

Predicted Nominees: The Bear, Abbott Elementary, Hacks, Only Murders in the Building, Curb Your Enthusiasm, The Gentlemen, Reservation Dogs, Ghosts

Where The Bear goes, so does its star, Jeremy Allen White, who has won two Golden Globes, two SAG Awards, and last year’s Emmy for his performance and whose third season will be streaming during the Emmy voting window. The only possible alternate scenario is a final-season push for Curb Your Enthusiasm’s Larry David. He’s probably the least likely candidate for a sentimental vote, but people were really nostalgic about that show as it was ending, and this would be David’s seventh nomination.

Last year, there were only five nominees in the Lead Actor and Lead Actress Comedy categories (the number of nominees in the acting categories is based on how many submissions there are in each category, and we won’t know those numbers until the ballot is released next month). This meant that Martin Short was nominated for Only Murders in the Building but Steve Martin was not. That made me irrationally sad, and I need it to not happen again. If they both get nominated, though, that would leave possibly only one more nomination for …

➼ Kelsey Grammer as a nostalgia selection for the rebooted Frasier (wait, I think I found a less likely sentimental pick than Larry David).
➼ Theo James for The Gentlemen, which, to reiterate, is Netflix’s main horse in the Comedy categories.
➼ Jharrel Jerome, who won for When They See Us in 2019, for his performance as a 13-foot-tall teenager in I’m a Virgo.
Either Matt Berry or Kayvan Novak from What We Do in the Shadows, even though neither was ever nominated in the years when the series was a Comedy nominee.
➼ D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, as Reservation Dogs’ came-of-age Bear.

Your Winner …
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

… Unless?
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm

Still Got It
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building

Still Got It?
Kelsey Grammer, Frasier

The Door Is Open
Theo James, The Gentlemen
Jharrel Jerome, I’m a Virgo

Vulture’s Staff Picks
D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, Reservation Dogs
Matt Berry, What We Do in the Shadows
Kayvan Novak, What We Do in the Shadows

Long Shots
Chris Messina, Based on a True Story
John Goodman, The Righteous Gemstones
Danny McBride, The Righteous Gemstones
Utkarsh Ambudkar, Ghosts
Rhys Darby, Our Flag Means Death

Predicted Nominees: Jeremy Allen White, Larry David, Martin Short, Steve Martin, Theo James

By a decent margin, the most interesting potential showdown on the Emmy ballot is shaping up to be The Bear’s Ayo Edebiri (leveling up to lead after winning supporting last year) and Jean Smart, who won this award for Hacks back-to-back in 2021 and 2022. There will be plenty of time to break down this race once the nominations come out, but I’m already excited.

If there were Olympic-style podiums for first, second, and third in each category, Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) would have that third slot absolutely locked down. Which leaves as few as two remaining slots to fill. Currently, there’s a lot of buzz for former Saturday Night Live co-stars and current Apple TV+ neighbors Kristen Wiig (Palm Royale) and Maya Rudolph (Loot). Neither show has enjoyed the overwhelmingly positive reaction that would lock up nominations for their lead actresses, but both play to these actresses’ strengths with Wiig as a flailing striver and Rudolph as an out-of-touch would-be woman of the people

Voters could also opt for a pair of younger actresses on two very dissimilar Hulu shows. Selena Gomez has still not been nominated for Only Murders in the Building, and while she certainly deserves as much credit for the show’s success as her male co-stars, her character arcs keep getting weaker. Meanwhile, this is the Emmys’ last chance to nominate Devery Jacobs’ defiant, searching, and soulful performance as Elora Danan on Reservation Dogs.

This category features a high percentage of actresses whose prior absence feels curious at best. How, truly, has Sarah Lancashire’s mellifluous and peppery performance in Julia not been nominated? Is Max truly such a godforsaken wasteland? Hacks seems to do okay there. Natasia Demetriou’s lack of nominations over the years for What We Do in the Shadows is criminal, and that goes double for Doll Nadja.

And, truly, nothing encapsulates the culture’s confused reception to And Just Like That … better than the fact that Sarah Jessica Parker — who was nominated for every single season of Sex and the City — didn’t get nominated last year.

The Big Showdown
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Jean Smart, Hacks

The Bronze
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

Years After Years After Years of Chicken
Kristen Wiig, Palm Royale
Maya Rudolph, Loot

The Millennials
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Devery Jacobs, Reservation Dogs

Ghosted?
Sarah Jessica Parker, And Just Like That …

Truly, What’s the Holdup?
Sarah Lancashire, Julia
Natasia Demetriou, What We Do in the Shadows
Rose Byrne, Physical
Rose Byrne, Platonic

Last Chance
Sara Bareilles, Girls5Eva
Renee Elise Goldsberry, Girls5Eva
Helene Yorke, The Other Two

2017 Was a Long Time Ago
Tiffany Haddish, The Afterparty
Amy Schumer, Life and Beth

Predicted Nominees: Ayo Edebiri, Jean Smart, Quinta Brunson, Maya Rudolph, Kristen Wiig

Sorry to keep predicting The Bear all the way down, but what else am I supposed to do? With an episode like “Forks” to submit, I don’t see how Ebon Moss-Bachrach loses. I’m predicting this category will tip majority Bear, with nominations for Oliver Platt (it’d be his sixth) as Uncle Jimmy, Lionel Boyce (who has a standout episode of his own with “Honeydew”) as Marcus, and Matty Matheson (whose culinary reputation has him out front as the show’s mascot) as Fak.

Tyler James Williams looks to be in good position to score his third consecutive nomination as Abbott Elementary’s Gregory. Being part of that show’s shipper-targeted romantic entanglement is probably helping elevate Williams over co-star Chris Perfetti (Jacob), who has yet to be nominated.

As has been the case in recent years, Saturday Night Live will make its presence felt in this category, where it’s had at least one nominee in five of the past seven years. Bowen Yang and Kenan Thompson have been the Emmy faves from the current cast, though every year I want to get crazy and predict Michael Che for reasons I don’t understand. Anyway, enjoy Emmy nominee Colin Jost.

As for the rest of the field, Carl Clemons-Hopkins was nominated here back in 2021, though my hunch is that Paul W. Downs is in a better position for the Hacks nomination now that Jimmy is essentially a shadow protagonist on the show. J.B. Smoove has never been nominated for Curb Your Enthusiasm, so now’s Emmy voters’ last chance. And Paul Rudd is probably close to a lock for what amounts to a one-season rental on Only Murders in the Building, not that he wouldn’t richly deserve it.

Alas, I’ll probably never get my wish of an all-queer lineup of Yang, Clemons-Hopkins, Joel Kim Booster (Loot), Ricky Martin (Palm Royale), David Hyde Pierce (Julia), Brandon Scott-Jones (Ghosts), and Harvey Guillen (What We Do in the Shadows), but I can dream.

Your Winner
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear

Shippers’ Choice
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary

How Deep Is the Sweep?
Oliver Platt, The Bear
Lionel Boyce, The Bear
Matty Matheson, The Bear

The Ringer
Paul Rudd, Only Murders in the Building

The SNL Slot(s?)
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live
Marcelo Hernandez, Saturday Night Live
Michael Che, Saturday Night Live
Colin Jost, Saturday Night Live
Andrew Dismukes, Saturday Night Live

Pick One
Carl Clemons-Hopkins, Hacks
Paul W. Downs, Hacks
Chris Perfetti, Abbott Elementary
J.B. Smoove, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Harvey Guillen, What We Do in the Shadows

Deserve a Look
Brandon Scott-Jones, Ghosts
David Hyde Pierce, Julia
Joel Kim Booster, Loot
Ricky Martin, Palm Royale
Giancarlo Esposito, The Gentlemen

Predicted Nominees: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Oliver Platt, Tyler James Williams, Lionel Boyce, Matty Matheson, Paul Rudd, Paul W. Downs, Bowen Yang

When Meryl Streep was only nominated for her performance in the second season of Big Little Lies, it was a double relief. It was a bad performance of a bad character, and it showed that simply being Meryl wasn’t enough to net her the win. …but it was enough to get the nomination. Streep is a shoo-in for inclusion for her work on Only Murders in the Building, which is actually good, starting from that very first scene, in which she’s making fun of her own penchant for accents.

To take position as the front-runner, Meryl leapfrogs Hannah Einbinder, who always seems like she’s gonna win this thing but then doesn’t. She’s the lead of her show and doesn’t belong in this category, but that’s usually helpful for supporting nominees willing to make the downgrade. Regardless, she’ll definitely be nominated again, as will 2022 winner Sheryl Lee Ralph for Abbott Elementary. How many Abbott cast members will join Ralph is the question. Janelle James has been nominated in each of the past two years, and with competition from shows like Ted Lasso and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel exiting the picture, it seems like both she and Lisa Ann Walter could find themselves nominated.

Meanwhile, here comes The Bear again. With last year’s winner, Ayo Edebiri, moving up to Lead, there’s a trio of actresses who could all find themselves nominated in Edebiri’s place, starting with Abby Elliot, whose Natalie grew into her role as restaurant business manager. Liza Colon-Zayas should’ve been nominated last year for the prickly-but-softening Tina, and Molly Gordon’s presence as a love interest for Carmy was frequent enough to put her in the Supporting Actress talk as well.

Meg Stalter lurks as a possible second Hacks nominee, another beneficiary of Jimmy’s storyline getting beefed up in seasons two and three. Palm Royale is a fringe contender across the ballot but especially here, where it features a trio of big-time Emmy faves: Allison Janney (15 nominations, seven wins), Laura Dern (eight nominations, one win) and Carol Burnett (25 nominations, seven wins). It would be pretty shocking if none of them ended up nominated.

Other Emmy faves: Cynthia Nixon for And Just Like That … and both Judith Light and Bebe Neuwirth for Julia. Finally, can we briefly talk about how Curb Your Enthusiasm has received ten nominations in Outstanding Comedy, yet Susie Essman has never been nominated? She’s the most widely known and appreciated element of the show who isn’t Larry … and yet nothing? That’s some bullcrap (which is not how Susie would put it).

Meryl
Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building

Wants to Say “I Beat Meryl!”
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks

She’s Done It Before
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary

How Deep Is the Sweep?
Abby Elliott, The Bear
Liza Colon-Zayas, The Bear
Molly Gordon, The Bear
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Lisa Ann Walter, Abbott Elementary
Meg Stalter, Hacks

Emmy Faves
Allison Janney, Palm Royale
Carol Burnett, Palm Royale
Laura Dern, Palm Royale
Cynthia Nixon, And Just Like That …
Judith Light, Julia
Bebe Neuwirth, Julia

Last Chance
Susie Essman, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Paula Pell, Girls5Eva
Busy Philipps, Girls 5Eva

The SNL Slot?
Ego Nwodim, Saturday Night Live
Heidi Gardner, Saturday Night Live
Chloe Fineman, Saturday Night Live

Long Shots
Kaya Scoledario, The Gentlemen
Paulina Alexis, Reservation Dogs
Linda Emond, Only Murders in the Building

Predicted Nominees: Meryl Streep, Hannah Einbinder, Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abby Elliott, Liza Colon-Zayas, Allison Janney, Janelle James, Molly Gordon

Shōgun hopping over to Drama left these categories in a bit of chaos, though late-breaking buzz seems to be directing momentum toward Netflix’s unsetting but undeniably impactful Baby Reindeer. Close behind are a pair of anthology shows that have solid Emmy pedigrees: FX’s Fargo (a three-timer in this category) and HBO’s True Detective: Night Country. The latter had something of a rocky reception, but the HBO brand and some really solid performances ought to be enough.

Netflix’s handsomely rendered Ripley basically screams award nominations (though the deliberate, creeping series would never be quite so loud), a trend that continues through shows like Apple’s meticulous 1960s-set Lessons in Chemistry and World War II drama Masters of the Air. These shows are hoping their high production values will ward off the trashy Feud: Capote vs. The Swans, the comparatively meek but intensely sexy Fellow Travelers, and Sofia Vergara’s girlboss-drug-lord series, Griselda.

Elsewhere, expectations proved to be too high for shows featuring Oscar-winning actresses (Kate Winslet in The Regime, Nicole Kidman in Expats) and Pulitzer-Prize–winning source material (The Sympathizer), all of which might still reap some Emmy nominations anyway because voters really like Oscar-winning actresses and Pulitzer Prize-winning source material. Then there’s Steven Soderbergh’s tightly plotted and morally muscular Full Circle — some of his best work from his current deal with Max — which was treated by most critics like middling career filler.

The New Front-runner?
Baby Reindeer

The Legacies
Fargo
True Detective: Night Country

Handsome!
Ripley
Lessons in Chemistry
Masters of the Air

Sex! Gossip! Violence!
Fellow Travelers
Feud: Capote vs. The Swans
Griselda

Disappointing
The Sympathizer
The Regime
Expats

Worthy
Full Circle 

Long Shots
All the Light We Cannot See
Apples Never Fall
Death and Other Details
The Fall of the House of Usher
Genius: MLK/X
Lawmen: Bass Reeves
Manhunt
Mary and George
Under the Bridge
The Lost Flowers of Alice Hart

Predicted Nominees: Baby Reindeer, Fargo, Ripley, Lessons in Chemistry, True Detective: Night Country

This thing gets ugly quickly, so watch your step. The long and the short of it is that Emmy voters have always been wild for Tony Shalhoub as Monk, and with the competition around this one-last-case movie being so weak it’s hard to see what beats it.

Jessica Yu’s zippy Quiz Lady and William Friedkin’s final film, The Caine Mutiny Court Martial, were both well reviewed and won’t be embarrassing as nominees. Nor would the decently clever horror parlor trick No One Will Save You or the Paramount+ crime thriller Finestkind. I’ll even say the often cringey and wildly unobservant Red, White, and Royal Blue had its moments, as did Netflix’s “Hey, we can make a She Said too” movie, Scoop.

But the not inconceivable notion that Jerry Seinfeld’s Unfrosted or Peter Farrelly’s Ricky Stanicky, two of the dumber TV movies this year, could get nominated is a grim one indeed.

Thumbs-up Emoji
Mr. Monk’s Last Case
Quiz Lady
The Caine Mutiny Court Martial 

“Hmm” Emoji
No One Will Save You
Finestkind
Scoop
Red, White and Royal Blue

Cringe Emoji
Unfrosted
Ricky Stanicky

Predicted Nominees: Mr. Monk’s Last Case, Quiz Lady, The Caine Mutiny Court Martial, Scoop, Red White and Royal Blue

Andrew Scott ought to have been nominated for the Oscar. He wasn’t. Now he probably will be nominated for an Emmy for Ripley, a show on which he’s too old to play the title character but at least captured Tom Ripley’s terrifyingly mundane villainy. The competition at the top of this category is pretty intense actually. A Jon Hamm nomination for Fargo is essentially the chocolate and peanut butter of Emmy voting: two voter-approved flavors that taste great together. And yet I wonder if the real front-runners aren’t Richard Gadd for his breakthrough autobiographical role in Baby Reindeer and the Emmy magnet that is Tony Shalhoub in the role of Adrian Monk.

Then we’ve got Tom Hollander (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans) and Matt Bomer (Fellow Travelers) playing two incredibly different versions of gay men making their way through straight mid-century social circles. It’ll be fascinating if voters go for one and not the other. Below them on most experts’ prediction charts are a ton of likely options. Michael Douglas as Benjamin Franklin is a concept just perverse enough to work. Genius: MLK/X features Kelvin Harrison Jr. as Martin Luther King and Aaron Pierre as Malcolm X. The Genius anthology series has produced nominations for its protagonists in all three of its previous seasons (Geoffrey Rush as Einstein; Antonio Banderas as Picasso; Cynthia Erivo as Aretha Franklin), so these two should be seen as serious contenders … if they don’t split each other’s votes.

Throw a dart and you’ll hit another possibility: David Oyelowo has already been nominated at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and Critics Choice Awards for his performance in Lawmen: Bass Reeves. A surge of voter support for The Sympathizer could sweep in Hoa Xuande. Post-Oscar (or post-Dune) hype could give Austin Butler in Masters of the Air a leg up. Jeff Daniels (A Man in Full) and Tobias Menzies (Manhunt) have both won Emmys in the past decade. Lots of ways this could go.

Oscar Consolation Prize
Andrew Scott, Ripley

Never Misses
Tony Shalhoub, Mr. Monk’s Last Case

Secure Nominees
Jon Hamm, Fargo
Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer

Gays in American History
Tom Hollander, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans
Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers

I Mean, Maybe?
David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves
Michael Douglas, Franklin
Hoa Xuande, The Sympathizer
Aaron Pierre, Genius: MLK/X
Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Genius: MLK/X
Jeff Daniels, A Man in Full

Or Else Perhaps?
Austin Butler, Masters of the Air
Josh Hartnett, Black Mirror
Kiefer Sutherland, The Caine Mutiny Court Martial
Mandy Patinkin, Death and Other Details
Sam Neill, Apples Never Fall

And Probably Not, But …?
Bruce Greenwood, Fall of the House of Usher
Tobias Menzies, Manhun
tNicholas Galitzine, Mary and George
Bill Pullman, Murdaugh Murders: The Movie

1994 Was a Long Time Ago
Jerry Seinfeld, Unfrosted

Predicted Nominees: Tony Shalhoub, Andrew Scott, Richard Gadd, Jon Hamm, Matt Bomer, David Oyelowo

Getting Jodie Foster for the fourth season of True Detective was the kind of casting coup where they start penciling in her nomination while the ink on the contract is drying. But she’s not the only Oscar-winning actress vying for this Emmy. The positive response to Brie Larson in Lessons in Chemistry must’ve been a balm after all those awful reviews of The Marvels. And while HBO’s The Regime seems to have fizzled, Kate Winslet has an impeccable Emmys track record whenever she decides to do TV.

Juno Temple’s recent run of nominations for Ted Lasso certainly helps her case for a nomination for her performance as a Minnesota woman with a hidden past in Fargo. Sofia Vergara’s Modern Family nominations similarly make her a known quantity for Emmy voters, increasing her chances for Griselda. If that leaves only one nomination free, it’s kind of hilarious that it might come down to a pair of Aussie best pals: Nicole Kidman for Expats and Naomi Watts for Feud: Capote vs. The Swans. Or it might be Annette Bening making an end run with her disappeared matriarch from Apples Never Fall. Or frequent Emmy nominee Uzo Aduba for the underrated Purdue Pharma takedown Painkiller. Or Claire Danes doing work that rivals some of her Emmy-winning best from Homeland in Full Circle.

Oscar-Winning Front-runners
Jodie Foster, True Detective: Night Country
Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry
Kate Winslet, The Regime

Likely
Juno Temple, Fargo
Sofia Vergara, Griselda

Two Best Friends, One Open Nomination
Naomi Watts, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans
Nicole Kidman, Expats

Long Shots
Uzo Aduba, Painkiller
Julianne Moore, Mary and George
Annette Bening, Apples Never Fall
Claire Danes, Full Circle

Longer Shots
Awkwafina, Quiz Lady
Sandra Oh, Quiz Lady
Carla Gugino, Fall of the House of Usher
Emma Corrin, A Murder at the End of the World
Kaitlyn Dever, No One Will Save You
Sigourney Weaver, The Lost Flowers of Alice Hart

Predicted Nominees: Jodie Foster, Brie Larson, Kate Winslet, Juno Temple, Naomi Watts, Sofia Vergara

Between Emma Stone and Robert Downey Jr., we could have a pair of actors winning Oscars and Emmys in the same calendar year. The Oppenheimer Supporting Actor champ stars in multiple roles in The Sympathizer, a tactic for setting out Emmy bait that plays to RDJ’s showboaty style, if not critics’ tastes.

Everybody else in this category appears to be playing catch-up to Downey. Lewis Pullman’s career continues to ascend, an arc that would happily accommodate a nomination for playing the brilliant but doomed Calvin in Lessons in Chemistry. John Hawkes brings dimension to a feckless cop on True Detective. Jonathan Bailey managed to break the Bridgerton mold with his sexy, soulful Fellow Travelers performance. Joe Keery did largely the same to his Stranger Things persona as a boy cop on Fargo. On a more sadly sentimental note, a posthumous nod for Treat Williams giving his final performance (and honestly one of his best) in Feud would be a nice send-off.

It’s His Year
Robert Downey Jr., The Sympathizer

Eating Downey’s Dust
Lewis Pullman, Lessons in Chemistry
John Hawkes, True Detective: Night Country
Jonathan Bailey, Fellow Travelers
Joe Keery, Fargo
Treat Williams, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans

Some Interesting Long Shots
Hugh Grant, The Regime
Finn Bennett, True Detective: Night Country
Barry Keoghan, Masters of the Air
Hugh Laurie, All the Light We Cannot See
Jason Clarke, The Caine Mutiny Court Martial
Russell Tovey, Feud: Capote vs. The Swans
Tommy Lee Jones, Finestkind
Dennis Quaid, Full Circle
Jharrell Jerome, Full Circle

Predicted Nominees: Robert Downey Jr., Jonathan Bailey, Lewis Pullman, John Hawkes, Treat Williams, Joe Keery, Hugh Grant

If Shōgun switching categories did nothing except clear the decks for the incredibly talented Jessica Gunning to win an Emmy for her terrifying and tragic performance on Baby Reindeer, it’ll have been worth it. Her major competition appears to be coming from True Detective’s Kali Reis, another strong performance, even if it’s in the wrong category. Reis joins Under the Bridge’s Lily Gladstone and Riley Keough as lead performers who are being strategically campaigned in Supporting.

Jennifer Jason Leigh has been collecting raves for Fargo for months, while Diane Lane is the pitiless backbone of Feud. She’s the most likely nominee from that show, though it wouldn’t shock me if she were joined by one or more of her co-stars Chloë Sevigny, Calista Flockhart, and Demi Moore.

Speaking of co-stars, Nava Mau stands a good chance of joining Baby Reindeer castmate Gunning on the Emmy ballot for playing Donny’s patient (to a point) girlfriend, Teri. I’m probably not lucky enough to get nominations for the wonderfully tetchy Zazie Beetz on Full Circle or the deliciously imperious Mary McDonnell on Fall of the House of Usher. More likely, it’ll be Lessons in Chemistry’s Aja Naomi King, The Sympathizer’s Sandra Oh, Ripley’s hilariously unimpressed Dakota Fanning, and True Detective’s hardy, mystical Fiona Shaw.

Incredible
Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer

I Mean They’re Leads, But Okay
Kali Reis, True Detective: Night Country
Lily Gladstone, Under the Bridge
Riley Keough, Under the Bridge

Solidly Positioned
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Fargo
Diane Lane, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans

Good Performances, Spotty Name Recognition
Nava Mau, Baby Reindeer
Aja Naomi King, Lessons in Chemistry

Wild Cards
Sandra Oh, The Sympathizer
Andrea Riseborough, The Regime
Dakota Fanning, Ripley
Fiona Shaw, True Detective: Night Country
Chloë Sevigny, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans
Calista Flockhart, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans

Deserve It, for Whatever That’s Worth
Zazie Beetz, Full Circle
Mary McDonnell, The Fall of the House of Usher

Predicted Nominees: Jessica Gunning, Kali Reis, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Diane Lane, Nava Mau, Sandra Oh, Chloë Sevigny