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It’s the Friday before the Tony Awards. Voting closed at noon today. Time to predict some winners. In a very unsettled season, there are a number of close races, including some big ones, which means there could be plenty of surprises during the night itself. And below, we’ve correctly predicted them all. (Post-ceremony fact check not necessary.) We’ll see you all Sunday.
Best Musical
Hell’s Kitchen
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Suffs
Water for Elephants
The closest race of the night. You could make an argument for each show here, though some productions have edged ahead of others over the course of campaigning: Hell’s Kitchen and The Outsiders are proving themselves as commercial hits; Suffs has become the critical fave; Illinoise is the edgier pick; and Water for Elephants is clinging to that New York Times critics’ pick (also, it has acrobats). Personally, I’d lean Suffs as the most well-made original thing of this crop, but the electric belting and star power of Alicia Keys campaigning hard feels like it’s pushing things in another direction.
Will win: Hell’s Kitchen
Best Revival of a Musical
Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Gutenberg! The Musical
Merrily We Roll Along
The Who’s Tommy
Merrily turned a famous flop into a surefire genuine walk-away blockbuster, lines down to Broadway, boffola sensational, box-office lalapalooza. Cabaret is selling, but it’s never gonna get past those reviews. The Who’s Tommy is happy to have a chance to perform on TV. (And I’d bet Gutenberg wishes it were competing as an original musical.)
Will win: Merrily We Roll Along
Best Play
Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
Mary Jane
Mother Play
Prayer for the French Republic
Stereophonic
Only one of these plays is performing during the broadcast, which kind of tells you all you need to know.
Will win: Stereophonic
Best Revival of a Play
Appropriate
An Enemy of the People
Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
Appropriate extended a nonprofit run to a commercial one, and the Tonys love when things make money. Also, it has the reviews and the TV star power. Still, there’s an outside chance that Purlie, which also had a well-timed debut on PBS, is actually victorious.
Will win: Appropriate
Best Direction of a Musical
Maria Friedman — Merrily We Roll Along
Michael Greif — Hell’s Kitchen
Leigh Silverman — Suffs
Jessica Stone — Water for Elephants
Danya Taymor — The Outsiders
Friedman, herself a stage star of the West End, has gotten to be the face of Merrily’s big rebound all campaign season. It’s hard to beat a narrative like that, even if Greif (who previously missed out on wins despite noms for Rent, Grey Gardens, Next to Normal, and Dear Evan Hansen) may have luck with “it’s finally time to give him one” voters.
Will win: Maria Friedman
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
Brody Grant — The Outsiders
Jonathan Groff — Merrily We Roll Along
Dorian Harewood — The Notebook
Brian d’Arcy James — Days of Wine and Roses
Eddie Redmayne — Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
My guess is that Lea Michele has already drafted her congratulatory Instagram post for Groff, who’s beloved but hasn’t yet won a Tony and whose essential likability keeps Merrily from curdling. There are possible spoilers in Redmayne (a star keeping Cabaret’s sales up, but way too divisive of a performance) and maybe, more likely, d’Arcy James (also beloved, though Days of Wine and Roses is probably too challenging for Tony tastes).
Will win: Jonathan Groff
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Eden Espinosa — Lempicka
Maleah Joi Moon — Hell’s Kitchen
Kelli O’Hara — Days of Wine and Roses
Maryann Plunkett — The Notebook
Gayle Rankin — Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Another close race that has everyone speculating. It boils down to a beloved veteran in O’Hara (who also propelled Days of Wine and Roses into existence) and a dazzling newcomer in Moon. Despite not loving Hell’s Kitchen, my feeling is that being new and in a show that’s running (and selling) pushes Moon farther, but it’s a tough call.
Will win: Maleah Joi Moon
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
Roger Bart — Back to the Future
Joshua Boone — The Outsiders
Brandon Victor Dixon — Hell’s Kitchen
Sky Lakota-Lynch — The Outsiders
Daniel Radcliffe — Merrily We Roll Along
Steven Skybell — Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Since Merrily runs in reverse, Radcliffe’s 11 o’clock number, “Franklin Shepherd, Inc.,” arrives somewhere around 7:30. His all-in energy sets the show off sprinting (and his name sells so many of its tickets). Radcliffe has done a significant amount of theater post-Potter without previously being nominated; it’s time for Broadway to give him a “welcome, and thank you” award.
Will win: Daniel Radcliffe
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
Shoshana Bean — Hell’s Kitchen
Amber Iman — Lempicka
Nikki M. James — Suffs
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer — Monty Python’s Spamalot
Kecia Lewis — Hell’s Kitchen
Lindsay Mendez — Merrily We Roll Along
Bebe Neuwirth — Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
The way I see it, there are three front-runners: Neuwrith, a true Broadway star and the universally agreed-upon bright spot in Cabaret; Lewis, who plays Hell’s Kitchen’s piano teacher and lends the show most of its emotional heft; and Mendez, whose woe-begotten Mary fills out Merrily’s central trio. Maybe this is inside baseball, but even though Merrily opened in the fall, it went to the lengths of reinviting Tony voters who’d already seen it in May, so I think Mendez’s richly nuanced work will be fresh on people’s minds.
Will win: Lindsay Mendez
Best Book of a Musical
Kristoffer Diaz — Hell’s Kitchen
Bekah Brunstetter — The Notebook
Adam Rapp and Justin Levine — The Outsiders
Shaina Taub — Suffs
Rick Elice — Water for Elephants
Sometimes, this is an award a front-runner collects based on its own momentum, but while Hell’s Kitchen may be my guess for Best Musical, its book is its generally agreed-upon weak point (it has both an underage sex scare and a confused attempt to justify “Pawn It All”). The Outsiders, The Notebook, and Water for Elephants don’t fare much better, which makes me think Taub has the advantage with her heavily reworked improvement over Suffs’ Off Broadway iteration.
Will win: Shaina Taub
Best Original Score
Adam Guettel — Days of Wine and Roses
David Byrne and Fatboy Slim — Here Lies Love
Will Butler — Stereophonic
Shaina Taub — Suffs
Jamestown Revival and Justin Levine — The Outsiders
More classically minded musical fans may also lean toward Taub’s work on Suffs here, which does display some objectively well-crafted songwriting, but I think (or have been blinded by my incessant relistening to “Drive”) that Stereophonic’s compositions have the essential coolness to win the day. I also think it would be fun if a play won in a season with so many so-so musicals.
Will win: Will Butler
Best Orchestrations
Timo Andres — Illinoise
Will Butler and Justin Craig — Stereophonic
Justine Levine, Matt Hinkley, and Jamestown Revival — The Outsiders
Tom Kitt and Adam Blackstone — Hell’s Kitchen
Jonathan Tunick — Merrily We Roll Along
The orchestrations category didn’t exist back in 1981 when Merrily had its first brief run on Broadway, though Stephen Sondheim himself did get a score nomination. Now, his frequent collaborator is back with another bite at the apple. That’s a feel-good narrative that I think makes him stand out over the also-great rock arrangements of Stereophonic, or Timo Andres’s impressively textured reworking of Sufjan Stevens’s landmark album.
Will win: Jonathan Tunick
Best Choreography
Camille A. Brown — Hell’s Kitchen
Annie-B Parson — Here Lies Love
Rick and Jeff Kuperman — The Outsiders
Justin Peck — Illinoise
Jesse Robb and Shana Carroll — Water for Elephants
Illinoise is a dance musical. Kind of locks it down.
Will win: Justin Peck
Best Scenic Design in a Musical
Amp featuring Tatianna Kahvegian — The Outsiders
Robert Brill and Peter Nigrini — Hell’s Kitchen
Takeshi Kata — Water for Elephants
David Korins — Here Lies Love
Riccardo Hernández and Peter Nigrini — Lempicka
Tim Hatley and Finn Ross — Back to the Future
Tom Scutt — Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Which wholesale, immersive renovation of a Broadway theater into a club will voters like more? Korins’s disco redux of the Broadway or Scutt’s Kit Kat–ification of the August Wilson? (Or, maybe, they just like flying cars or ’90s New York.) Even those who didn’t love Cabaret tend to agree the club aspect is fun, and the show’s running, so I lean in that direction, but Korins (despite his work on Hamilton and Beetlejuice) hasn’t yet won, so Here Lies Love may have its day.
Will win: Tom Scutt
Best Costume Design in a Musical
Dede Ayite — Hell’s Kitchen
Linda Cho — The Great Gatsby
David Israel Reynoso — Water for Elephants
Tom Scutt — Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Paul Tazewell — Suffs
If Hell’s Kitchen and Suffs are in a close race for best musical, I’d also imagine them in a close race here: We’ve got two designers working in a distinctive period, the big hats and corsets of the early 20th century versus the FUBU and Tommy Hilfiger of New York in the 1990s. I’m guessing Suffs, since in costumes anything near “period drama” tends to be a winner.
Will win: Paul Tazewell
Best Lighting Design in a Musical
Brandon Stirling Baker — Illinoise
Isabella Byrd — Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Natasha Katz — Hell’s Kitchen
Bradley King and David Bengali — Water for Elephants
Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim — The Outsiders
This may as well be an award for best darkness. The twunks of The Outsiders spend much of the show cloaked in dramatic chiaroscuro — and then there’s that big stormy rumble. That may make it stand out among other similarly striking dark pieces, though there’s close competition in the fireside warmth of Illinoise and the chilling blackness of the Kit Kat Club.
Will win: Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim
Best Sound Design of a Musical
M.L. Dogg and Cody Spencer — Here Lies Love
Kai Harada — Merrily We Roll Along
Nick Lidster for Autograph — Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Gareth Owen — Hell’s Kitchen
Cody Spencer — The Outsiders
Everyone agrees that Hell’s Kitchen sounds incredible, whether or not its plot and themes are intelligible. I have no idea how Owen made the acoustics of the Shubert work that well.
Will win: Gareth Owen
Best Direction of a Play
Daniel Aukin — Stereophonic
Anne Kauffman — Mary Jane
Kenny Leon — Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
Lila Neugebauer — Appropriate
Whitney White — Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
The trick of Stereophonic lies in getting performances that feel so lived-in it feels as if you’re watching a documentary (maybe even, specifically, one like The Beatles: Get Back). Aukin wins off of Stereophonic’s momentum, and also for helping the cast find so many different ways of sitting.
Will win: Daniel Aukin
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
William Jackson Harper — Uncle Vanya
Leslie Odom Jr. — Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
Liev Schreiber — Doubt: A Parable
Jeremy Strong — An Enemy of the People
Michael Stuhlbarg — Patriots
Strong has helped make Ibsen a hit (An Enemy of the People recouped its capitalization), and he’s a face voters know from TV. Odom campaigned for and produced Purlie, but I’m not sure that’s enough to land an upset.
Will win: Jeremy Strong
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Betsy Aidem — Prayer of the French Republic
Jessica Lange — Mother Play
Rachel McAdams — Mary Jane
Sarah Paulson — Appropriate
Amy Ryan — Doubt: A Parable
Paulson started off in New York theater before all those AHS seasons, and now she’s back with critical acclaim in a hit. Her fellow Murphyverse traveler, Lange, may have that grande dame status (though not quite as good reviews), while newcomer (specifically to the professional stage) McAdams is more of a movie star, but the Tony probably still goes Toni (to be clear, her character’s name is Toni).
Will win: Sarah Paulson
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
Will Brill — Stereophonic
Eli Gelb — Stereophonic
Jim Parsons — Mother Play
Tom Pecinka — Stereophonic
Corey Stoll — Appropriate
Conventional wisdom says three entries from one production will cancel each other out, which leaves an opening for Stoll (also fearsome in Appropriate), but my gut says there’s enough Stereophonic enthusiasm for Gelb’s work as Grover, the tortured sound engineer who becomes the heart of the play in the second act, to be recognized. He, at least, has gotten a lot of the recognition in precursor awards shows.
Will win: Eli Gelb
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Quincy Tyler Bernstine — Doubt: A Parable
Juliana Canfield — Stereophonic
Celia Keenan-Bolger — Mother Play
Sarah Pidgeon — Stereophonic
Kara Young — Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
Take the logic above and reverse it! Pidgeon may be arguably the lead of Stereophonic, as the show’s Stevie Nicks–alike, and she’s got an incredible voice, to boot, but Young’s comedic genius in Purlie was pretty undeniable. The two have been neck and neck all season, so this may come down to a coin flip, but I’m guessing Young, previously nominated for the past two years (a record for a Black actress), has built up the acclaim and enthusiasm to take it.
Will win: Kara Young
Best Scenic Design in a Play
dots — Appropriate
dots — An Enemy of the People
Derek McLane — Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
David Zinn — Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
David Zinn — Stereophonic
A fun category with two pairs of double nominees, and a place where revival and original works face off. The recording studio of Stereophonic and the plantation home of Appropriate are both integral to those respective productions, and both likely to be the sets recognized. I’m going with Appropriate, which ends with an eerily effective sequence of decay.
Will win: dots (Appropriate)
Best Costume Design in a Play
Dede Ayite — Appropriate
Dede Ayite — Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
Enver Chakartash — Stereophonic
Emilio Sosa — Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
David Zinn — An Enemy of the People
Stereophonic makes a compelling, if dangerous, argument that bell-bottoms should come back (the Off Broadway run had its own vintage shop in the lobby). That may be enough to net it a win.
Will win: Enver Chakartash
Best Lighting Design in a Play
Isabella Byrd — An Enemy of the People
Amith Chandrashaker — Prayer for the French Republic
Jiyoun Chang — Stereophonic
Jane Cox — Appropriate
Natasha Katz — Grey House
Darkness design is the name of the game for Byrd, who brought hygge to An Enemy of the People by way of gas lamps. I think that’s distinctive enough to grab voters’ focus, though there’s something to be said for the eternal 2 a.m. vibe of Stereophonic and the southern gothic energy of Appropriate.
Will win: Isabella Byrd
Best Sound Design of a Play
Justin Ellington and Stefania Bulbarella — Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
Leah Gelpe — Mary Jane
Tom Gibbons — Grey House
Bray Poor and Will Pickens — Appropriate
Ryan Rumery — Stereophonic
The sound booth in Stereophonic actually works.
Will win: Ryan Rumery
