Is Shōgun the Limited Series to Beat?

One of the infrequent but recurring quirks of the Emmy Awards is when first-run series start off competing as Limited Series then return for second seasons (and beyond) in the Drama or Comedy categories. This is usually presented as a strategic decision (see more on “category fraud,” below) as historically the Limited categories are less crowded (i.e., competitive). It’s worth it for a Downton Abbey or Big Little Lies to go Limited — under the pretense that they’re only single-season shows — before the networks admit they’re actually ongoing series. What’s potentially fascinating about this year is that the smarter strategy could lie in making the jump to Drama, where Succession’s ending has left a void. There’s much speculation about whether top Limited Series like Shōgun, Ripley, and Masters of the Air might change categories and compete as Dramas. This is a decision that Showtime already made for The Curse, another series with no concrete season-two plans, which ended quite definitively. For the moment, if we take these shows at their word (which is to say, as they’re currently marketing themselves), here is the state of the Limited Series race today.

At first glance, Shōgun appears to be the limited series to beat. Rachel Kondo and Justin Marks’s FX series just wrapped a phenomenal ten episodes, sticking the landing and leaving critics and fans appreciative of the closed-loop finale but also quietly clamoring for the show to find a way to continue. It has all the trappings of an awards contender: There’s no feather in a potential Emmy darling’s cap quite like the day-after-premiere headlines talking about what viewership records just got broken. In the case of Shōgun, it was 9 million viewers who helped break the Hulu record for most-viewed FX series premiere. Meanwhile, a quick glance around entertainment media proves this Japanese-language series based on a nearly 50-year-old work of historical fiction became the watercooler show of spring 2024. It has already left The Regime — a show in which Kate Winslet plays an autocratic European leader, mind you — in the dust on that front. Winning the attention war will go a long way toward making sure Emmy voters take note.

And Shōgun plays right into contemporary Emmy-voting taste. While absent any dragons, it scratches the itch Game of Thrones voters have for grand-scale military conflict backed by plotting and scheming. The language barrier isn’t what it used to be, either, not after the huge success Squid Game had at the Emmys only two years ago. That series didn’t only show up among the Best Drama nominees; it pulled down four acting nominations, a writing nomination, and a directing win. This is good news for the likes of Hiroyuki Sanada, Cosmo Jarvis, and Anna Sawai, Shōgun’s three breakout performances.

From this far of a distance, the Limited Series category will likely come down to a race between three platforms with multiple contenders apiece:

➼ FX/Hulu, which has Shōgun, plus the latest, highly praised season of Fargo, and outside chances for Feud’s Capote season and the winter tech-murder drama A Murder at the End of the World.

➼ Netflix, which has the stylish Ripley, featuring Andrew Scott in perhaps the most perfect “the Oscars snubbed you, so here’s your Emmy instead” role in recent memory. (It’s worth noting that we’re still a few weeks before the submission deadline, which gives Netflix plenty of time to announce a second season of Ripley, thus sending this show into the Drama Series fracas.) Netflix also has the recently premiered Baby Reindeer, which is getting topical buzz about its based-on-a-real-life-stalker story at exactly the right time, in addition to being quite good and a showcase for the great Jessica Gunning.

➼ HBO, which will probably push for a Jodie Foster nomination at the very least for True Detective: Night Country, despite the disappointing reception that show got. And then there’s The Sympathizer, the Park Chan-wook/Don McKellar collaboration based on the 2015 Pulitzer Prize–winning novel and co-starring recent Oscar winner Robert Downey Jr. as multiple characters.

Outside those three powerhouse platforms, there’s Apple TV+, which has a plethora of contenders in all the Emmy genres and whose Limited Series hopefuls are led by the Brie Larson–starring Lessons in Chemistry and the aforementioned, handsomely mounted World War II flyboys drama Masters of the Air. Showtime doesn’t yet have a third season of Yellowjackets to campaign, so it’ll make a go of the queer-themed historical drama Fellow Travelers. Starz will try to sneak some well-cast trash into the mix with Mary & George. In terms of performances to watch out for in the Limited categories as the season progresses, there’s also Jonathan Bailey and/or Matt Bomer in Fellow Travelers; Jon Hamm, Juno Temple, and Jennifer Jason Leigh in Fargo; Tom Hollander and Naomi Watts in Feud; Lily Gladstone for Under the Bridge; and of course, the man who never misses with Emmy, Mr. Monk himself, Tony Shalhoub.

There are other limited shows worth advocating for, like the Steven Soderbergh–produced Full Circle, which features an incredibly deserving Claire Danes lead performance. Unfortunately, that show flew a bit too far under the radar when it premiered last summer, and by the time Emmy nominations are announced, it will have been a full calendar year since it aired. And there are bad shows that could probably still sneak in a nomination or two: It’s unlikely HBO will throw too much support behind a show it canceled like The Idol, but we should stay vigilant with that much star power. The same goes for Expats; though it never really broke through into the pop-culture discussion, Nicole Kidman is an entrenched Oscar and Emmy winner. Her name on a ballot will always have some pull, as does Annette Bening’s. Her recent Oscar nomination for Nyad should be proof enough that we can’t count out a surprise nomination for her in Peacock’s Apples Never Fall.

If you’ve followed awards for long enough, you know the term “category fraud” is thrown around far more than it probably should be. These are strategic decisions made largely because there are gray areas between categories — nobody’s getting swindled on the Atlantic City boardwalk here. Movie studios or TV networks, looking to maximize their potential at nominations and wins, can choose to position their shows and performers inside genre and acting categories that offer the least amount of expected competition. In extreme cases, you can’t help but raise an eyebrow: when the Golden Globes nominated My Week With Marilyn as a “Musical or Comedy” despite the film barely eliciting a chuckle, all so Michelle Williams had an easier path to victory. Or when Showtime’s Shameless and Nurse Jackie competed as comedies despite being harrowing (if quirky) stories of drug addiction and quiet desperation. The Television Academy tried for a while to use running time as a determinant — all comedies are half-hour, all dramas are hour-long — but that was unhelpful and ultimately abandoned in 2021. Sometimes there is legitimate gray area: There are endless debates over The Bear’s classification as a comedy in 2024, but consider Netflix’s Orange Is the New Black, which initially campaigned as a comedy in 2014 but switched to Drama in 2015.

When it comes to Limited Series, according to the official Emmy rules, the show must “tell a complete, nonrecurring story. The story arc must be completely resolved within its season, with no on-going story line and/or main characters in subsequent seasons.” In the past, shows have played fast and loose with eligibility requirements. Downton Abbey originally presented as a Limited Series and won six awards at the 2011 Emmys before further seasons were ordered, and the show competed as a drama thereafter. HBO waited until after Emmy nominations were announced for what appeared to be Big Little Lies’ one and only season before announcing (misbegotten) plans for a second. When The White Lotus returned in its second season with Jennifer Coolidge’s Tanya back for more, the show was bumped to Drama Series.

At the moment, there are no plans for Shōgun to return for a second season, even if there seems to be a lot of people on either side of the screen who would like that to happen. Netflix has not yet announced a second season of Ripley. But with a weak final season of The Crown as the top competition in Drama, both Shōgun and Ripley would make for formidable contenders in Drama. Hell, just avoid the “category fraud” accusations altogether and actually produce second seasons. Plenty of folks would be thrilled.