Six months from Election Day, American voters are confronting a presidential race that looks stable at a glance — and is roiling with uncertainty beneath the surface.
For the first time in more than a century, Americans will choose between two presumptive major-party nominees who have already served as commander-in-chief: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
But while the matchup has long been expected, Americans are sour about it: Election interest hit a 20-year low in the latest NBC News poll, and majorities of registered voters have unfavorable views of both men. That means barring a big change, the election will be decided by voters with negative views of both Biden and Trump — not only who they pick but whether they decide to participate at all in what’s expected to be the most expensive presidential race in American history.
Trump holds a narrow 2-point lead among registered voters, inside the margin of error, in NBC News’ April poll, in an election where both candidates appear to have a different theory of the case. Biden is leaning hard on issues like abortion rights, where polls show he has the upper hand, while utilizing a significant fundraising advantage.
But polls also show a majority of Americans disapprove of Biden’s job in office — an opening Trump has seized to hammer Biden on issues like the economy and the border, all while looking to energize his base as he faces dozens of federal and state charges across four different cases. Meanwhile, third-party candidates are seeking to capitalize on apathy toward the major candidates.
Here’s a look at where the 2024 presidential race stands six months out — in the polls, on the balance sheet, in key battlegrounds and more.
Trump’s narrow edge over Biden
Despite a turbulent and chaotic news environment, the contest between Biden and Trump remains both close and stable with six months to go until Election Day, according to most polls.
NBC News’ latest national survey shows Trump ahead by 2 points among registered voters, 46%-44% — well within the poll’s margin of error.
What also stands out is how the race has barely budged over the year, with Trump’s share stuck between 45% and 47%. Biden’s has fluctuated more, but only a little more, between a high of 49% and a low of 42%.
Other polls — both nationally and in the key battleground states — confirm how competitive and stable the race has been.
Biden’s biggest advantages are among Black voters, women and white voters with college degrees. Trump, meanwhile, has the edge among men, white voters and white voters without college degrees.
The NBC News poll shows Biden and Trump tied or competitive among independents, Latinos and young voters — though the polls have differed on whether young voters have actually defected from Biden.
But the polling also points to potential wild cards that could upend this stability. These include third-party candidates being introduced to the mix: NBC News’ latest poll finds a 2-point lead for Trump turning into a 2-point Biden edge when the ballot is expanded, though other surveys have shown Trump doing better when third-party options are included.
Meanwhile, a quarter of voters say they could change their minds. Ultimately, the fluid battle for votes from people considering third-party candidates could change dramatically between now and Election Day, as Biden and Trump hammer their other competitors — and each other.
How things can change in the last six months
When incumbents have run for re-election, there’s been relatively little movement in NBC News national polling between six months out and Election Day.
But that finding comes with a few huge caveats. The Electoral College (not the popular vote) decides who wins the presidency. A shift of just a few percentage points, particularly in key swing states, could matter a lot in a close election. And the 2016 election shifted substantially with Trump on the ballot.
In April 2020, Biden led Trump by 7 percentage points in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 49%-42%. Biden’s final popular vote margin over Trump in November was 4 percentage points.
In 2012, President Barack Obama led Republican Mitt Romney by 6 percentage points in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll and won the popular vote later that fall by 3 points.
And in 2004, President George W. Bush’s 3-point lead in the May 2004 NBC News poll mirrored the popular vote victory he scored months later.
But that relative stability was not present in 2016, when Democrat Hillary Clinton led Trump by 11 points in NBC’s April 2016 poll, long before key flashpoints including the FBI’s investigation into Clinton’s use of her private email server and the release of the Trump “Access Hollywood” tape. Clinton won the popular vote by just 2 percentage points, but she obviously lost the Electoral College, and with it the presidency.
What voters are weighing most
Voters have routinely cited several major concerns as they decide their votes — things like the economy and inflation, Biden’s age and the state of abortion rights across the country.
The latest NBC News national poll presented voters with a battery of these oft-cited issues and qualities, asking respondents to identify which candidate would best tackle each issue.
Biden won out on just two qualities. On who has the ability to bring the country together, 37% of voters said he would do a better job, while 28% said Trump would do better. And on dealing with the issue of abortion, 46% said Biden would do a better job compared to 31% about Trump.
Trump bested Biden on one issue routinely ranked high by voters as a top issue this election year: dealing with inflation and the cost of living. Over half — 52% — of those surveyed said Trump would handle this issue better and just 30% said the same about Biden.
Trump also led Biden on several qualities like being competent and effective and having a strong record of accomplishments as president.
On the ground in the battlegrounds
The realities of the Electoral College system mean much of the next six months of campaign activity and spending will focus on a handful of closely contested battleground states. So far, Trump has slightly edged out Biden in events in the most competitive states, in part because he lives in battleground Florida. Without Florida, it’s Biden who has held more battleground events.
In 2020, eight states were decided by 5 percentage points or less. Biden won Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin by razor-thin margins — carrying each state by less than 1 point. Biden’s narrow wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada also fueled his victory, while Trump carried North Carolina by 1 point and Florida by 3 points.
Both Biden and Trump are traveling to the key battlegrounds, although Trump has not yet held a campaign event in Arizona. While Biden has held fewer events just with his campaign, he has made several visits to these states for official White House events, underscoring how incumbent presidents can leverage their office in an election year.
The battlegrounds getting the most attention from Biden so far include North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, with six events in each state. Trump has appeared at far more events in Florida than any other battleground, including some events at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, where Trump also lives. Next after that: Pennsylvania and Nevada.
Fewer voters than usual are enthusiastic about the election
Voters are not exactly excited about the 2024 race, especially compared to past elections. The most recent NBC News national poll found the lowest level of interest at this point in the election cycle since 2012, with 64% of registered voters rating their interest either a “9” or a “10” on a 10-point enthusiasm scale.
That’s a sizable drop from the 74% who said they had a high interest in the election in April 2020. Interest has been stagnant for months, but past elections have seen an uptick in enthusiasm closer to November. In March 2012, 67% of voters in an NBC News poll said they had a high interest in the election, and that increased to 77% by October of that year.
A big cash gap
It’s clear Biden and the Democrats have a significant fundraising edge over Trump and Republicans with six months to go.
Over the first three months of 2024, the Biden campaign had raised more, spent more and ended March with more money in the bank than the Trump campaign. Through March, the most recent month for which campaigns have filed campaign finance reports, the Biden campaign had more than $85.5 million banked away, while Trump’s campaign had $45.1 million.
The national party organizations are in a similar place: The Democratic National Committee outraised and outspent the Republican National Committee in each of January, February and March, closing the first quarter with $45.2 million in cash on hand to the RNC’s $21.6 million. Overall, the Biden and the DNC had almost twice the cash on hand as the Republicans and Trump.
But the GOP is hopeful it can make a dent into that lead now that Trump is firmly in control of the party, having captured the delegates for the nomination in March. Sources told NBC News last month that an early-April fundraiser in Florida had more than $50 million in commitments (those numbers aren’t able to be confirmed until fundraising reports are filed later this month). More big Republican donors are coming back into the fold and supporting Trump as the party continues to fall behind its presumptive nominee. And after installing new leadership at the RNC, Trump is headlining the party’s spring retreat, which will take place in part at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida.
On the airwaves
More than $400 million has already been spent on ads in the presidential race, including the millions spent during the contested GOP primary, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Trump’s allied super PAC, MAGA Inc., has been one of the top-spending groups through Sunday, largely focusing the $45.6 million spent so far on securing the Republican nomination for Trump. But Biden’s campaign has already eclipsed Trump on the airwaves, spending more than twice as much on ads through Sunday.
Biden has had a huge advantage over Trump on the airwaves since former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley ended her run for the GOP nomination in early March. Since Haley dropped out of the race and kicked off the general election, Biden’s campaign has spent $24.5 million on ads, while Trump’s campaign has spent just $50,000.
Biden’s allied super PAC is also the only group that has reserved airtime from Monday through Election Day in November. So far, the Future Forward PAC has spent $130 million on ad reservations through Nov. 5, while MAGA Inc. has spent $728,000 on future reservations.
AdImpact has projected that the 2024 race will be the costliest yet, estimating that $10.2 billion will be spent on ads, surpassing 2020’s record by more than $1 billion.
Trump on trial
Trump’s legal troubles add an especially unpredictable and unusual piece to the 2024 election.
Trump has already been through 11 days of trial in New York, where he’s accused of falsifying business records related to an alleged hush money payment to an adult film star. And that trial is expected to run for weeks before the jury is asked to render a verdict.
He could still face one or two more trials before the year is over on more serious charges, trials that could keep him off the campaign trail for extended periods and, more importantly, shift the contours of this race. But no dates have been set.
The pending federal case in Washington, D.C., in which he is accused of election interference, is on hold pending a Supreme Court decision that isn’t expected until the end of June.
Neither the Florida case, which considers whether Trump mishandled classified documents, nor the Georgia case, in which he is accused of racketeering in his bid to overturn the 2020 election, has a start date, but they could theoretically begin in the next six months.
